tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6859126.post1143265198376037661..comments2023-10-28T06:41:07.069-07:00Comments on Ambition, Impatience and Sloth: Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06427208386709900367noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6859126.post-37410800498962049282008-05-11T12:58:00.000-07:002008-05-11T12:58:00.000-07:00I'm convinced that a majority - a super-majority -...I'm convinced that a majority - a super-majority - of Americans will vote for a black candidate. Presented with two contenders one black and one white, knowing only policy preferences, thinking of both candidates as decent members of the relevant community and with the black candidate coming closer to their views, most Americans would vote for the black candidate.<BR/><BR/>The problem is that it's hard to imagine getting that contest, because it's so much easier to tap into subconscious attitudes towards "the Other". It's much easier to use negative ads to associate the black candidate with negative stereotypes, and with fear of the unknown and foreign, in people's minds. So people start out preparing, consciously, to give the black candidate an equal chance, but after Atwater/Rollins/Rove/et al. run several months' worth of ads, there's an underlying level of uncertainty and mistrust for a big chunk of the white electorate.<BR/><BR/>I have no idea what this means for the fall election. Maybe Obama wins a landslide. But if he loses, it'll be hard to point to 'racism' as the reason, no matter what the exit polls say, because it won't show up as anything that the media recognize as racism: only a tiny fraction will admit any sort of unwillingness to vote for a black. And I doubt you'll find the much-discussed Bradley effect, because there aren't that many voters with a genuine unwillingness to vote for a black, in the abstract.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com