When They Call This Good News...
New polling in the putative Spitzer-Pataki 2006 gubernatorial contest here in the Empire State:

Republican Gov. George Pataki has narrowed the gap against state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in a possible 2006 governor's race, according to a statewide poll released Monday.

The Siena College Research Institute poll of registered voters had Democrat Spitzer leading Pataki 48 percent to 34 percent. A Siena poll conducted last month had Spitzer leading Pataki 53 percent to 30 percent.

Can't you just hear it now? "Congratulations, Governor: you're up to 34 percent!"

It's moot, of course; Pataki isn't running next year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never stands for election again. He's interested in the do-re-mi, and should cash in nicely just as his one-time mentor Al D'Amato did before him.

I have very, very little regard for George Pataki, but his career might stand up to future historians as a classic example of a public figure who perfectly navigated the various political currents of the last decade-plus. Pataki won the governor's mansion in 1994, riding a national Republican wave and the same kind of voter fatigue with his predecessor, three-term incumbent Democrat Mario Cuomo, that Pataki will forego next year. He cruised to re-election in 1998 like most other state-level incumbents of that time, riding on the strong economy; the hot race in New York that year was for the Senate, with Chuck Schumer making D'Amato pay the price for his high-profile involvement in the various Clinton witch-hunts. Four years later, Pataki might have been vulnerable; but the halo effect of 9/11, combined with his overwhelming money advantage compared to underwhelming Democratic nominee H. Carl McCall and some shrewd political deal-making with union kingpin Dennis Rivera brought him through.

Pataki supposedly fashions himself a contender for national office, the vice-presidency if not the White House. But like most Republicans in generally Democratic states, he's doomed to fail any number of political litmus tests: he's pro-choice, gay-tolerant, surprisingly good on the environment, and has shown occasional tendencies toward pragmatic policymaking on issues such as public assistance. His anti-tax absolutism isn't enough, he won't help any Republican nominee carry New York or anywhere else, and he's nobody's idea of an electrifying speaker or inspiring personality. He'll take his pension, sell his influence, pop up on local talk shows, write the occasional Times op-ed, and fade into well-deserved obscurity.