Recycled Thoughts on the PA Senate Primary

To my surprise, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter hung on last night, edging right-wing darling Pat Toomey for the Keystone State's Republican Senate nomination by about 16,000 votes out of a million or so cast. I've got mixed feelings about this one; any outcome that upsets the frothing market fundamentalists at the Club for Growth, would-be Christian Ayatollah Rev. James Dobson and other stalwarts of the right wing can't be all bad, and in some sense it's a good thing whenever you have Republicans who don't automatically assume any Democratic proposal or argument springs wholly formed from the mouth of Satan. But Specter's survival is arguably bad news for Democratic nominee Rep. Joe Hoeffel. Hoeffel's center-left approach contrasts much more effectively with a hard right winger like Toomey than a social moderate like Specter, whose seniority brings lotsa pork-product goodies to the state.

It's interesting to see all the ways this is being spun:

• Bush's support for Specter won it


• the fact that it was so close despite Bush's support speaks to right-wing frustration that could hurt Bush and Specter in November


• Rove's GOTV pilot operation (anyone else see a historic parallel to German involvement in the Spanish Civil War?... okay, I didn't think so) won it for Specter


• the fact that almost as many Dems voted for Kerry in a meaningless primary as voted in Specter/Toomey shows higher Democratic motivation

And so on. As we've seen again and again since last summer, none of these pundits really know anything. How do I get one of those gigs?

I was hoping for a super-close primary election that would leave enough blood on the floor that whoever lost would be pissed enough to sit out the general and clear a path for Hoeffel. It didn't quite happen, though 51-49 does seem to illustrate a strong cleavage among PA Republicans. In a non-presidential year, Toomey might have pulled it out. Of course, he's young enough that there's a good shot he'll be back contending for the seat in six years (when Specter is 80 and likely done). Hopefully by then, Hoeffel will be the state's senior Senator, with Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum banished to some right-wing Hades in 2006.

In the meantime, Specter's the favorite, but if Hoeffel can raise enough money and roll up a big enough margin in Philly--a major challenge, considering Specter's long ties to the city and strong support from the usually reliably Democratic constituencies of organized labor and the Jewish community--he could pull the upset in November. The only way I see Hoeffel doing that is to really link Specter with Bush, who's very unpopular in Philly. Tapping into the strong distaste moderate Philadelphians like my dad feel for Chimp-in-Chief could sufficiently dampen their fondness for Specter to give Hoeffel more votes in the city. Still, I think Specter probably will win enough ticket-splitting votes to hang onto his seat.