All Questions Will Be Answered; All Fears Will Be Allayed

The Philadelphia Phillies went into spring training last month under a cloud of fan cynicism after a low-visibility off-season and with deep concerns about the quality of the team's pitching, a lineup some viewed as overly dependent on the home run, and a roster that has underachieved for at least two years. After four weeks in camp, and two weeks of games, the club still faces a few question marks, but I'd argue that what we've seen so far offers more ground for optimism than almost anyone would have believed at the beginning of February.

In fact, after watching the team club 19 runs in two games this weekend, led by five home runs off the bats of Jim Thome, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu, I have gone on record with my belief that this year's Phillies team will win the National League East and advance into the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The biggest reason why is that, as manager Charlie Manuel keeps saying, "Damn, son, we gonna hit." They is indeed. I expect all-star seasons from Bobby Abreu and Jimmy Rollins, and an MVP-type campaign from Thome. Pat Burrell, if his wrist holds up (and so far, so good), looks better than he has since his 37-homer year in 2002. Chase Utley and Mike Lieberthal should be fine, and whether it's David Bell or Placido Polanco at third base, the team should get above-average production from that position. Centerfield, the black hole of 2004, should be better whether or not Kenny Lofton, currently working through a hammy strain, is healthy; the biggest reason is the apparent rebirth of Marlon Byrd, who's torn up Grapefruit League pitching and, at least according to the always-dubious Marcus Hayes, has secured his spot on the roster. Jason Michaels, who had started the spring as Lofton's likely platoon partner in center field, might now be relegated to pinch-hitting duties with Byrd taking his at-bats. I also wouldn't be shocked if Michaels is dealt at some point, for minor-league depth or more pitching.

My strong hunch is that this Phils team will set all kinds of offensive records (the good kind, mostly, though they'll probably strike out a lot too). In addition to the talent on hand, my big reason for optimism here is that they now have a manager whose expertise is in hitting, and who understands that power and patience is the strength of his lineup. Manuel was a big, slow slugger, like Thome and Burrell, who specialized in the home run during a few years of stardom in the Japanese major leagues; Larry Bowa was a singles hitter whose offensive strengths, modest though they were, consisted of speed and situational hitting.

The pitching--particularly the rotation, which underachieved so dramatically last year--is a bit more of a concern, but the team has some depth here and likely will have the means to get midyear reinforcements if need be. Jon Lieber might not be an ace in the Schilling/Clemens mode, but he's a good bet to win 14-18 games and put up a lot of innings. He walks almost nobody, which is key for Citizens Bank Park. I'd rather the Phils had signed Brad Radke of the Twins, who both never issues walks and throws copious grounders, but he stayed in Minnesota, which is kind of nice too, and Lieber might have been the next most attractive guy for the Phillies considering cost and style. Randy Wolf seems healthy, and could finally put together a full season of the dominance he showed in late 2002 and early 2003 as well as other stretches. Vicente Padilla, probably the most talented arm on the staff, is coming back slowly from an injury; the team can afford to be cautious, because Gavin Floyd seems to be for real. The 22 year-old has regained low-90s velocity with his fastball, and shows the sort of composure that his wunderkind predecessor Brett "Nuke" Myers has yet to display in the majors. But Myers is back too, still just 24, still with great stuff and apparent health, and has been decent this spring. I'd rather see him moved to the bullpen, where his problems going twice and thrice through a lineup wouldn't matter and he could just rear back and fire, but there's plenty of time for that. Cory Lidle is probably in the upper half of #5 starters, and Ryan Madson--whom I'd like to see switched with Myers--could resurface as a rotation candidate too.

Someone on philliesphans.com figured out that the Phils might pay more for their bullpen this season than for the rotation. Half of that is Billy Wagner's $9 million price tag, but if he stays healthy after missing 70 games last year, he'll probably be as worth that crazy amount as any reliever could be. Veteran role guys Tim Worrell and Rheal Cormier are fine as long as they're not asked to do too much--check out their numbers with Wagner healthy and hurt last year--and Madson is a big asset in his current setup role.

As always, Ed Wade is my big concern. His in-season trades have been almost uniformly awful, aside from the Robert Person pickup six years ago now and, arguably, the Lidle deal last year. This time at least he should have some good chits, and hopefully can deal from strength rather than need. Ryan Howard, the slugging first baseman who mashed 48 homers at three levels last year and impressed me last weekend in Florida with some canny situational hitting, is most likely to go. Placido Polanco, the do-it-all infielder who's chafing at his projected reserve role, could have value as well.

Hopefully in 2005, the Phils' definition of "a long season" will be literally rather than figuratively true--extending all the way into mid- or late October.