Well, I wasn't as ready as I thought I was. Rather than the expected Obama win at 8.15 or so, it's a few minutes before 11 and he's conceding.
What happened? Who knows, really, but probably some combination of:
- Independent New Hampshire voters breaking for McCain;
- Overconfidence by the Obama organizers;
- The most brilliant rope-a-dope strategy on the part of the Clintons since the Ali-Foreman fight; and
- The "fuck you, Iowa" effect.
And now? Again, who knows. Two rumors on the tubes (as I will now call the Internet) earlier today were that Obama was in line to receive a union endorsement in Nevada that would have made him the overwhelming favorite in that state's vote, and that Clinton was perilously close to running out of money. She'll be able to raise money now, and that union endorsement--which had been expected Wednesday--is probably being reconsidered even as I sit here.
In that the turnaround gives more people the chance to be involved in the process, this is a good thing for everyone. In that it will ensure that whoever the Democrats nominate will be much more battle-tested than might have been the case had either candidate won the first two contests, that's probably a good thing for the Democrats. In that it raises the hopes of perpetuating the Clinton dynasty, I'm less than thrilled. But life is full of these little disappointments, and after November 2004, I'm pretty certain there's only so much any election defeat can hurt.